by India is undergoing a significant demographic transition with total fertility rates witnessing a steady decline over the past few decades. However, there exist wide sub-national variations in fertility levels across different states in India. The southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have reached replacement levels of fertility much earlier than the national average owing to development successes and effective implementation of family planning programmes. On the other hand, states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh continue to have high total fertility rates (TFR) above the national average despite a declining trend. Tracking these inter and intra-state differences in fertility levels and trends is crucial for population projections and programme planning.
Introducing the India Fertility Monitor
The India fertility monitor is an initiative launched jointly by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) to systematically collect, compile and analyse state-level fertility data across India. It aims to provide accurate, up-to-date sub-national fertility estimates for all the states and union territories in the country. The monitor utilises data from large-scale sample survey programmes like Sample Registration System (SRS), National Family Health Survey (NFHS), Census of India and other relevant surveys. It analyses trends in key fertility indicators like crude birth rate (CBR), total fertility rate (TFR), general fertility rate (GFR), and age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) at monthly, annual and five-year intervals at the state level.
Key fertility indicators monitored
Some of the key India Fertility Monitor regularly by the India fertility monitor market include:
– Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Represents the average number of children that would be born to a woman by the end of her child-bearing years if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates of a given time period throughout her reproductive life.
– General Fertility Rate (GFR): Refers to the number of live births taking place during a year per 1000 women aged 15-49 years.
– Crude Birth Rate (CBR): Denotes the number of live births occurring during a year per 1000 population.
– Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs): Provide the number of live births to women in a particular age group per 1000 women in that age group.
These indicators help monitor fertility levels and the pace of demographic transition at sub-national levels on a regular basis. Any changes or outliers detected are investigated further for appropriate policy feedback.
State-wise fertility trends
Some of the key findings from the fertility monitoring of major Indian states include:
Kerala: With a TFR of 1.6 children per woman (as per NFHS-4, 2015-16), Kerala has reached below replacement fertility and is one of the lowest in the country. The consistent focus on social development factors like women’s education and empowerment along with easy access to family planning services have led to this success.
Tamil Nadu: The TFR in Tamil Nadu stood at 1.7 children per woman according to NFHS-4, having halved from 3.4 in 1992 due to effective implementation of family welfare programmes. However, certain districts still show relatively higher fertility levels.
Bihar: Despite declining from 4 babies per woman in 1992 to 3.4 as per NFHS-4, Bihar continues to have the highest TFR among large states in India. Socio-cultural factors and sub-optimal access to services in parts pose challenges here.
Rajasthan: The desert state has seen its TFR drop from 4.2 to 2.7 children in recent decades. However, performance varies across southern and northern regions with rural-urban differences as well affecting pace of change.
Uttar Pradesh: With a population of over 200 million, UP accounts for 16.5% of India’s population but has a high TFR of 2.7 children as per NFHS-4 estimates. Fertility decline has been more gradual compared to other states.
Meghalaya: Among smaller states and UTs, Meghalaya recorded the highest TFR of 2.9 children as per Census 2011. High desired family size, early marriage and limited access persist issues in this hilly region.
Tracking such trends and variations helps understand emerging population dynamics and helps channel state-specific efforts for addressing their family planning needs and social development more prudently. The India fertility monitor market serves as a valuable tool in this regard.
COVID-19 impact on fertility patterns
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has induced some demographic changes across India in a short time due to lockdowns, access disruptions and livelihood uncertainty. The India fertility monitor market has begun tracking preliminary signs of changes in fertility patterns as well during this period:
– Provisional data compiled till mid-2020 suggested an unexpected decline in TFR for some states like UP, Bihar and Rajasthan as lockdowns impacted family planning services. This led to postponement of birth intentions.
– On the other hand, few like Meghalaya saw an increase in crude birth rate during the lockdown period indicating that people relied more on family support systems for child-rearing in times of crisis.
– Preliminary findings point at a short-term decline in birth rates once lockdowns are lifted in states seeing restricted access to services but long-term demographic impacts are still uncertain.
Therefore, fertility monitoring plays a key role in capturing such changes timely and adapt policies accordingly amid health emergencies like COVID-19. The India fertility monitor market will continue tracking trends to provide timely insights on emerging patterns.
The India fertility monitor market has proven highly useful in mapping regional differentials in fertility across states and union territories of India over time. It serves as a crucial data source for population projections, program impact assessment and informed resource allocation at state levels. With expanding data sources, it aims to provide increasingly refined sub-national fertility estimates to support India’s demographic transition goals.
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*Note:
1. Source: Coherent Market Insights, Public sources, Desk research
2. We have leveraged AI tools to mine information and compile it
